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Great site Kenny.

Technical Analysis written in a straightforward way so that everyone understands.

There's only a small few who get it consistantly correct and you are certainly in that group. Chris

Thanks for putting this all together and sharing! BHW

Awesome Stuff! Kenny has shown time and time again the ability to show us direction in these markets. Khalsa

Kenny, I appreciate your insight and analysis. You make sense of what I can rarely see.

Thanks for sharing.

Took a gold short at 1240 just closed at 1203 :-)))))))))))))))))) ........ top call!!  Gekko

Two Speed World: Gerald Ashley

The Impact of Explosive and Gradual Change - Its Effect on You and Everything Else

Gerald Ashley: Two Speed World - Part 2

Gerald Ashley, author of Two Speed World and Financial Speculation, talks to Kenny of Gerald is an advisor, a writer and a speaker on business risk and decision making. Gerald has over thirty years of experience in international finance, having once worked for Baring Brothers in London and in Hong Kong, as well as for the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland

Financial Speculation by Gerald Ashley

Return to Two Speed World: The Gerald Ashley Interview Part 1

The Gerald Ashley Interview Continued....

Kenny:  Are there patterns to this behaviour and if so what creates these cycles?  
Gerald: Yes - essentially these were examined at least a century ago and still hold good. As Jesse Livermore said Wall Street never changes because human nature never changes. I cover much of this in Financial Speculation 

Kenny: Are any of these cycles more important than others? 
Gerald:  I think the Business Cycle can be tied to the major asset classes, it’s not perfect but the same overall patterns repeat time after time. The trouble is they are often of long duration, sometimes 10 years plus, and the collective market memory is far shorter. Also the credit Cycle is particularly persistent, dare one say predictable?
Kenny: How reliable are these cycles in the financial markets?
Gerald:  Reasonably, they are better suited to long term asset allocation than the usual trading horizons though.

 Two Speed World Author: Gerald Ashley
Kenny: How do we cope when it goes wrong and the market action does not conform to the current cycle?   
Gerald:  Badly - because we are wrong and most players rather be right than necessarily make money. Cycles "fail" usually when we over optimise them, try to make ludicrous pin point decisions and lose patience.
Kenny:   Is there a difference between Risk management and money management, or are they effectively different terms for the same thing? 
Gerald: They are essentially the same thing, and the hardest part of the business. I always say trading is 10% direction, 20% timing and 70% money management. In fact in Financial Speculation I recall how used to trade by tossing a coin AND then managing the resultant position!
Kenny: How important is risk management to a trader and what can happen if we don't understand risk management properly?  
Gerald:  It is pretty much the only thing that counts. It is often fairly easy to call the direction, and it is possible to be average or lucky with timing - but money management is a brutal discipline that takes years to master.
Kenny:  So why is it that some traders are more successful than others, what qualities make the difference between being successful or not?
Gerald:  Successful traders have three qualities, patience, realistic expectations and a ruthless ability to admit when they are wrong and to take action. They are not attached to positions or ideas and can cut losses very easily.


:  Can we learn to become a successful person or is it something that we either have or do not have within us?  
Gerald: Yes - BUT it is extremely hard. It takes hard work, dedication and discipline to develop the skills I mentioned above. 
Kenny: So, is there a formula that we can use to become successful, a systematic process for analyzing problems to come to the right decision? 
Gerald: Possibly but I sense that it is different for each individual. You have to understand a lot about yourself before you can successfully trade. We all see problems through a personal prism,that is why it’s so hard to create a "formula" for successful trading. Each individual will have a different approach. 
Kenny:  Coming back to current markets, how have we managed to get ourselves into such an economic mess?
Gerald:  .......Continue to Two Speed World-3: The Gerald Ashley Interview Part 3

2 Speed World by Gerald Ashley

Books by Gerald Ashley

2 Speed World by Gerald Ashley

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