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Great site Kenny.

Technical Analysis written in a straightforward way so that everyone understands.

There's only a small few who get it consistantly correct and you are certainly in that group. Chris

Thanks for putting this all together and sharing! BHW

Awesome Stuff! Kenny has shown time and time again the ability to show us direction in these markets. Khalsa

Kenny, I appreciate your insight and analysis. You make sense of what I can rarely see.

Thanks for sharing.

Took a gold short at 1240 just closed at 1203 :-)))))))))))))))))) ........ top call!!  Gekko

2 Speed World: Gerald Ashley

The Impact of Explosive and Gradual Change - Its Effect on You and Everything Else

Gerald Ashley: Two Speed World

Gerald Ashley, author of 2 Speed World and Financial Speculation, talks to Kenny of Gerald is an advisor, a writer and a speaker on business risk and decision making. Gerald has over thirty years of experience in international finance, having once worked for Baring Brothers in London and in Hong Kong, as well as for the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland

2 Speed World by Gerald Ashley

The Gerald Ashley Interview

Kenny: Hello Gerald and welcome to Your two books Financial Speculation and more recently 2 Speed World cover a topic that is of great interest to me, and I believe that most traders would benefit from gaining a better understanding of the psyche of the markets and how we ourselves tend to react in certain circumstances.
Gerald: Thank you - Firstly Financial Speculation will be on much more familiar territory to your readers as I try to give an insider's view of markets having been in them for over 30 years.
Kenny: What do you believe that readers can learn from reading 2 Speed World?
Gerald:  The latest effort, Two Speed World opens up the wider issue of how we make decisions and deal with risks and uncertainties and what are the best approaches. This is not just about markets but business, innovation, running organisations etc. As such it’s a business book rather than just focussed on markets.

 Two Speed World Author: Gerald Ashley
Kenny: As I am talking with you, it has been an extremely turbulent couple of weeks in the markets with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing nearly 2000 points, the S&P500 250 points, and the Ftse100, 1000 points or so.....some very large moves in a very short space of time, is this a classic example of a 2 speed world 'disruptive' event?   
Gerald: Yes – In general, the financial markets do demonstrate the two modes of "incremental" change & "disruptive" change. This is clear to anyone who trades them, we look at this in Two Speed World though there is much more research to be done.

Readers need to start focusing on Complexity Theory and Complex Adaptive Systems....these ideas demonstrate how markets and general social groups can suddenly "flip" from one mode to the other. It’s the future of finance and trading and very fascinating.
Kenny: What I see time and time again in these large moves is many traders trying to buck the trend by trading against it, is this because they have failed to adapt quickly enough to the changing circumstances?  
Gerald: Yes the old phrase "The Market is Wrong!" In general traders suffer from confirmation bias, i.e. they only believe the facts that suit their view, this can be a quick way to lose a lot of money. Successful traders listen to the market.
Kenny: Is it possible for us to train ourselves to adapt more quickly to rapidly changing circumstances?  
Gerald: There is a tension between racing around for the sake of it and being able to change your views and positions when the facts change. This is a skill not easily obtained - experience and knowledge are vital. The less emotional you are the better trader you will become - don’t see trading as "exciting" (it isn’t) and have realistically low aims (a consistent 10-15% annual return would be an excellent record)

Kenny:  What is the single one thing that we can do to learn to adapt our mindset more quickly to cope with the new circumstances?
Gerald: Be less opinionated about the markets, listen to what the market is telling you and stop trying to tell the market what it should be doing! In fact having virtually no opinion can be a strong plus in trading – but staggeringly hard to do!

:   Financial markets are always going to be volatile at times, we as traders are looking for certainty in an environment where certainty is impossible, what can we do to cope better with this lack of certainty where a mistake can become extremely costly?
Gerald:  It is the human condition to want certainty - in fact we crave certainty. (Maslow's hygiene factors explain this well). We are gripped by those that promise certainty and can "predict" the future, but we must learn to "let go" and accept that its the uncertainty that generates the profit potential.
Kenny:  It is my experience that Fear and Greed are the main drivers of market movements, where markets 'climb a wall of worry' and go down the 'Slope of hope'....what is your version of this?
Gerald:  Very similar but in fact I label the emotions slightly differently, I think markets climb a Wall of Fear (when all fear has gone and only sublime confidence is left we are normally very close to a market crash) and you are right we slide down the slope of hope (only when all hope is extinguished does a market turn).
Kenny:  It is commonly recognised that the 'majority' sell at market bottoms and buy at market tops, the exact opposite of what they should be doing, why do you think this is, what causes us to do this?
Gerald: Traders are very influenced by noise, screaming headlines etc. Keynes (himself a very successful speculator) identified that the successful investor is good at anticipating what everyone else is going to anticipate! Most investors fail to think through this process and end up following the initial herd rather than the underlying prospects for the marketplace. I would say they are not listening properly to the market. 

Kenny:  Are there patterns to this behaviour and if so what creates these cycles?  
Gerald: ......Continue to Two Speed World-2: The Gerald Ashley Interview Part 2

2 Speed World by Gerald Ashley

Books by Gerald Ashley

2 Speed World by Gerald Ashley

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