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Great site Kenny.

Technical Analysis written in a straightforward way so that everyone understands.

There's only a small few who get it consistantly correct and you are certainly in that group. Chris

Thanks for putting this all together and sharing! BHW

Awesome Stuff! Kenny has shown time and time again the ability to show us direction in these markets. Khalsa

Kenny, I appreciate your insight and analysis. You make sense of what I can rarely see.

Thanks for sharing.

Took a gold short at 1240 just closed at 1203 :-)))))))))))))))))) ........ top call!!  Gekko

Two Speed World: Gerald Ashley

Financial Speculation - Trading Financial Biases and Behaviour

Gerald Ashley: Two Speed World Part 3

Gerald Ashley, author of Two Speed World and Financial Speculation, talks to Kenny of Gerald is an advisor, a writer and a speaker on business risk and decision making. Gerald has over thirty years of experience in international finance, having once worked for Baring Brothers in London and in Hong Kong, as well as for the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland

Financial Speculation by Gerald Ashley

Return to Two Speed World: The Gerald Ashley Interview Part 1

The Gerald Ashley Interview Part 3

Kenny:  Gerald, coming back to current markets, how have we managed to get ourselves into such an economic mess?
Gerald:  Overspending politicians, myopic Central Bankers financing too much debt with cheap money and misguided regulators. The "No more boom & bust" culture was fatuous. Now we are paying for it.
Kenny: So who is to blame for the situation that we find ourselves in now, with the banks and the massive government debts?
Gerald:  All of the above - and ourselves. We borrowed too much, indulged in fantasy economics of "equity release" from housing etc. Basically we spent more than we earned.Two Speed World Author: Gerald Ashley

Kenny:  Is it true that the constant warnings about the impending debt crisis was a self fulfilling prophecy, created by putting people off from spending, or was it already a runaway train that could not be stopped?   
Gerald:  No - It was already fulfilled because anyone who chose to look could see the calamity coming. Many people warned about the situation for years - but no one listens when the party is in full swing!

Kenny: What is your opinion of how the worlds governments have coped the crisis, have they successfully saved us from something much worse, have they made the situation worse, or are they simply passengers on that runaway train?   
Gerald: They found themselves in a hellish position in 2007/08 as things started to spiral. They had to prevent a depression, but the cost of supporting economies through that period will be a sideways grind in growth (or lack of it) for possibly a decade.
Kenny: What are the main mistakes that they have made and why were the mistakes made?
Gerald:  Failure to correct the massive global economic imbalances - these will be sorted out, but the longer it takes the more painful it will be.
Kenny:  Markets have taken quite a beating over the last couple of weeks, is the worlds economies now in a terminal spiral or can it still be saved? 
Gerald:  Things always recover the problem is it takes time - I think Mervyn King of the Bank of England is completely correct in predicting a "lost decade". It is clear that a lot of the wealth generated n the "noughties" was flimsy debt fuelled spending, not real wealth. Now the debts are being repaid and we will shrink back to a poorer reality. This will have long-term effects.

:  What is does the future now hold for the major currencies such as the USD and the Euro, can they be taken back from the brink? 
Gerald: Currencies are just a price - They will go up and down in free markets. To my mind the US Dollar is not "finished", though clearly the US are trying to devalue as much as possible to boost their own economy. The trouble is everyone else wants a weak currency as well. The Euro is a busted flush - It will break up as it’s simply not credible - it was a harebrained scheme from day one, that was always going to be tested to destruction in any prolonged economic downturn.   
Kenny:  What steps do we need to see taken from here to rescue us all from the current economic disaster?
Gerald: I should like to quote Cicero from 55BC!  "The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt.  People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance." 
Kenny:  Clearly, nothing changes then! So the big question is, are our governments up to the task in hand?
Gerald: Doubtful - politicians have short term horizons determined by the electoral cycle, this means they often blunder around with short term initiatives that can make things worse!

Kenny:  Thanks Gerald, I appreciate the time you have taken to talk to us today.

Financial Speculation by Gerald Ashley

Books by Gerald Ashley

Financial Speculation and 2 Speed World by Gerald Ashley

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