Hello,
Welcome to
Stock
Market Trading
the new look newsletter for
2011 from Traders
Day
Trading & Kenny's
Elliott Waves Blog.
Important, the information provided here
is supplied for educational purposes only and should not be taken as
financial advice or an inducement to trade. Please refer to the full
terms and conditions at www.tradersdaytrading.com and seek
independent financial advice where necessary.
S&P 500 Cash Index - The
Week Ahead
The
Week That Was...
For
last weeks analysis we had a tough call as the market consolidated in a
range without having a go at our upper targets. We decided to plan for
a marginal new high then all the way down towards 1273 with a trading target of
1286.
"This weeks outlook is a
very tough call. 1353 is still out there
as a potential target, the gap at 1343 remains open and there is still
no technical change in trend. However, on balance it looks like there
should be some more weakness on the way."
The
market gave us the marginal new high to 1327.68 but this was just high
enough to stop out the day trade set up with an entry at 1323.
The
market then tanked all the way down to our support level at 1303 before
recovering all its losses for the week, but ultimately broke down again
to hit our 1286 target in pre market trading on Friday.
The weekly trade performed very nicely thanks to the wider stops and
gave us 35 points for that single trade.
The
Week Ahead...
Last week
we gave the key pivot level as 1293 cash and that means that this weeks
call is no less tricky than it was last week. The market could not
quite hold the pre market break, and in fact the S&P 500 only
briefly made it to a low of 1291.99 for the week in real time trading,
before performing a sharp reversal higher.
"After that it can drop
towards 1273, but the key pivot level remains at 1293"
This
gives us a dilemma. Was that a fake out low or was it a sign of genuine
strength that will see an attempted run at our higher targets?
As always, we will trade what we see and not what we think. The
analysis says up and we will go with that for this week as long as cash
stays above our key pivot at 1291.99
1326 is the immediate target but it now looks very likely that the gap
at 1343 should be filled and that will probably ultimately lead to at
least a shot at 1353 over the next week or two.
After a very brief spell where many bears turned bullish, last weeks
price action has flipped many of them short again. It looks like a new high is
in direct contrast to what most are looking for from here but as
always, we will trade with our head rather than with the heart.
Successful trading is about odds and probabilities, not about being
right or wrong. Stop losses protect us from the exception to the rule.
| Pivots |
Monday |
Weekly |
Monthly |
| R3 |
1334.26
|
1379.36 |
1430.00 |
| R2 |
1317.90 |
1343.67 |
1375.07 |
| R1 |
1311.09 |
1323.98 |
1351.15 |
| Pivot |
1301.54 |
1307.98 |
1320.14 |
| S1 |
1294.73 |
1288.29 |
1296.22 |
| S2 |
1285.18 |
1272.29 |
1265.21 |
| S3 |
1268.82 |
1236.60 |
1210.28 |
| Current |
Week
 |
Month
|
Year
|
| Open |
0 |
1307.07 |
1257.64 |
| High |
0 |
1332.28 |
1344.07 |
| Low |
0 |
1291.99 |
1257.62 |
| Range |
0 |
40.29 |
86.45 |
| Previous |
Day
|
Week
|
Month
|
Year
|
| Open |
1293.43 |
1322.72 |
1289.14 |
1116.56 |
| High |
1308.35 |
1327.68 |
1344.07 |
1219.8 |
| Low |
1291.99 |
1291.99 |
1289.14 |
1011.40 |
| Close |
1304.28 |
1304.28 |
1327.22 |
1258.84 |
| Range |
16.36 |
35.69 |
54.93 |
208.4 |
Key
Support and Resistance Levels
|
1381 |
|
1370 |
|
1360 |
|
1353 |
| High? |
1344 |
|
1334 |
|
1326 |
|
1320
|
|
1311
|
| Current |
1304.28 |
Low?
|
1303
|
| ST
Pivot |
1298 |
| MT
Pivot |
1293 |
|
1288 |
|
1273
|
|
1225 |
Bold
Numbers = Stronger Support and Resistance
Trade Set
Ups for the Week Ahead
Last weeks Day Trade set up was stopped out for a -3
The
weekly Swing trade entered at 1321 and banked 35 points in premarket
trading on Friday, giving us a total of 32 points for the week.
This week, we will not know until we see some price action on Monday
whether to expect a gap and go to 1312 or if it will back test 1300
first so it makes a 3 point stop a bit unpredictable. We do also want
to try to catch more of the potential larger move higher, so with this
in mind we are going with 2 swing trades this week instead of the usual
1 swing trade and 1 day trade.
******
NOTE:
For this format I am using a 10 point stop loss on the weekly trade set
up and 3 points on the day trade set up.
It
is important to remember that technical analysis does not tell us what
will happen, it is about the odds and probabilities of what to expect
to happen given a certain set of circumstances. As circumstances change
so must expectations, and trading plans must be adapted to fit those
new circumstances.
******
Kennys Stock Market Trade for the
Week (1)
| Market |
Trade |
Open |
Target |
| S&P
500 Cash Index |
Buy |
1301
or Best Price |
1338 |
Kennys Stock Market Trade for the
Week (2)
| Market |
Trade |
Open |
Target |
| S&P
500 Cash Index |
Buy |
1304 or Best
Price |
1326 |
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Market Trading, please do us a big favor an send it to a
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Kenny
|
