Hello,
Welcome to
Stock
Market Trading
the new look newsletter for
2011 from Traders
Day
Trading & Kenny's
Elliott Waves Blog.
*****
S&P 500 Cash Index - The
Week Ahead
The
Week That Was...
The market did not gap down as I was
looking for and instead found the support at 1337-38 (sorry about the
typo reading 1137) and that immediately placed the focus on the
alternative scenario, looking for a slightly higher high than the
Fridays 1354 peak.
The week went on to top out on Tuesday at 1359 where it promptly
reversed closing back down on my major pivot level at 1337.
The week ahead should
therefore see a continuation down, but there is a
possibility that the long term cycle may have some life in it yet and
could allow for another pop above Fridays high, further back testing
the validity of 1370 as the top.
On
Friday, I suggested that the market would close 1335-37...it
actually closed at 1340 and quotes then dropped to 1338. I believe that
cash will gap down below this when it opens on Monday and then can fill
the gap before heading down for the week.
The
alternative scenario is that 1137 will hold and there will be an
attack on Fridays high again.
The
Week Ahead...
I will now be evident to all and sundry,
exacly how imortant this 1337 level is and I suspect that there will be
a few lining up to buy it again on Monday, but I do think that it has
now reached the point where it should now break.
As you already know, I believe that the longer term cycles are in the
process of rolling over and a break of 1337 is likely to seal the turn.
This should result in a fairly sharp move down as stops are tripped and
the new trend becomes evident.
"If the "One degree of
trend upwards" 'B' wave count on the chart is correct, the market
should be due a fairly spectacular move down once the 'c' wave is
complete. That means we just have to pin down 'c' to within an
acceptable margin of error. "
"What I am talking about
here is the
potential for the S&P500 to shed at least 160-200 points over
the
next few weeks."
"The larger cycles are
still pointing upwards but are now much nearer the sweet spot. "
Last week was a throw away week for the market as it went nowhere,
closing flat on the week, simply marking time due to the remaining
bullish sentiment of those larger time cycles is my guess.
With another week nearer the sweet spot of that cycle, that puts
us back where we were last week.
That means that I am looking for the gap down again on
Monday. Visitors to the Khalsas Free Friday post in Kennys Elliott
Waves Blog on Friday got an early warning of this, with the immediate
target level of 1307 also posted. You will see from the Pivots table
below, that 1307 also happens to be the Daily S3 for Monday.
|
| Pivots |
Monday |
Weekly |
Monthtly |
| R3 |
1374.24
|
1397.90 |
1480.68 |
| R2 |
1357.35 |
1370.49 |
1410.82 |
| R1 |
1347.56 |
1354.13 |
1387.21 |
| Pivot |
1340.46 |
1343.08 |
1340.96 |
| S1 |
1330.67 |
1326.72 |
1317.35 |
| S2 |
1323.57 |
1315.67 |
1271.10 |
| S3 |
1306.68 |
1288.26 |
1201.24 |
| Current |
Week |
Month
 |
Year
 |
| Open |
0 |
1365.21
|
1257.64 |
| High |
0 |
1370.56 |
1370.56 |
| Low |
0 |
1329.17 |
1249.05 |
| Range |
0 |
41.39
|
121.51
|
| Previous |
Day
|
Week
|
Month
|
Year
|
| Open |
1348.69
|
1340.07 |
1329.48 |
1116.56 |
| High |
1350.25 |
1359.44 |
1364.56 |
1219.8 |
| Low |
1333.26 |
1332.03 |
1294.70 |
1011.40 |
| Close |
1337.77 |
1337.77 |
1363.61 |
1258.84 |
| Range |
16.99 |
27.41 |
69.86
|
208.4 |
Key
Support and Resistance Levels
|
1381 |
Top?
|
1370 |
|
1360 |
|
1353 |
|
High? |
1344 |
|
Current |
1337 |
|
|
1334 |
|
1326 |
|
1322
|
|
1319 |
|
1312
|
|
1310 |
|
1305 |
|
1303
|
|
1298 |
|
1293 |
|
1288 |
| Low? |
1273 |
|
1268 |
|
1257 |
|
1249
|
|
1225 |
Bold
Numbers = Stronger Support and Resistance
Trade Set
Ups for the Week Ahead
Last weeks trade set ups were not taken as it was obvious from the
start that
the alternative scenario for the week was in play, as discussed
earlier.
It was not given as a trade set up last week as I planned for the
gap down, but readers were already aware from previous comments that
adding a position around 1354 was desired.
Since that was
given as the alternative scenario and the trade was posted live on the
forum page, I will add another short position from there to my 'Open
Positions' here.
This week I want to add
another position short. If this had been a
daily newsletter I would have added it
at Fridays high at 1354 but as it is I will have to let my money
management rules take care of me.
No points were banked this week as the trades were not taken, but the
open position trades are currently runnint at 33 and 20 points in
profit.
Stop loss levels on both trades should now be lowere to just above this
weeks high at 1359.
******
NOTE:
For this format I am using a 10 point stop loss on the weekly trade set
up, 3 points on the day trade set up and 15 points on a position trade,
unless otherwise indicated.
******
Kennys Stock
Market Trade for
the
Week
| Market |
Trade |
Open |
Target |
| S&P
500 Cash Index |
Sell |
1339 |
1309 |
********************************
Open Positions
Kennys Stock Market Position Trade
| When
Opened |
Market |
Trade |
Open |
Target |
Stop |
| Week
2 May |
S&P
500 Cash Index |
Sell |
1370 |
1175 |
1359 |
| Week
9 May |
S&P
500 Cash Index |
Sell |
1357 |
1175 |
1361 |
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