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Kennys Stock Market Trading - The Week Ahead 25 Apr
April 24, 2011

Issue# 0014 24 April 2010

Stock Market Trading

Traders Day Trading & Kenny's Elliott Waves Blog

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Welcome to Stock Market Trading the new look newsletter for 2011 from Traders Day Trading & Kenny's Elliott Waves Blog.


S&P 500 Cash Index - The Week Ahead

The Week That Was...
Readers of last weeks newsletter will be well aware of the conflicting signals I had for last weeks trading. The plan that I came up with meant that I was looking for the market to drop from the outset, with an estimated weekly high of 1322, but I did allow for a potential pop and drop in my trade set ups.

In fact the market duly obliged with the sharp decline from the off, all the way down to within 6 points of my target at 1288 dropping 29 points before the buyers appeared and bought it all the way back to close higher on the week.

We do not need to know, and can never 'know' what is going to happen. The larger plan suggested that the S&P500 may have topped so that is what I will be going with for this week ahead, and will let the money management strategy take care of the rest. 

Once again the plan was a good one in real time trading with a nice haul of points for the week, which I believe demonstrates this statement from last week very well. Despite the numerous conflicting signals that there were, there was absoluetly No Fear with this trade. The money managment strategy was in place and if it had gone the wrong way, it would have been a normal trading loss.

The Week Ahead...
The 7 points I listed last week are still important for this weeks analysis so please do take a look at this blog post where I have 'Analyized the analysis' and there is a visual of it with a chart.

If the "One degree of trend upwards" 'B' wave count on the chart is correct, the market should be due a fairly spectacular move down once the 'C' wave is complete. That means we just have to pin down 'C' to within an acceptable margin of error.  What I am talking about here is the potential for the S&P500 to shed at least 160-200 points over the next few weeks.

The larger cycles are still pointing upwards but are now much nearer the sweet spot.

Regular visitors may have noticed that the Red line in my chart at 1338.1 has been left there for some time now and although I have not mentioned its importance before, I believe it is a very important number and would prefer not to see a daily close above that line.

Bottom line is that I am on full crash alert from here but should see that take shape early in the week if it is going to happen.

The main conflicting signals this week are the fact that price closed above my down sloping trendline resistance on Friday and would fit with the inverted head and shoulders that has been forming on the daily chart over the last 2 months.
Pivots Monday Weekly Monthtly
R3 1345.22
1408.77 1468.84
R2 1340.56 1365.98 1385.61
R1 1338.97 1351.68 1355.72
Pivot 1335.90 1323.19 1302.38
S1 1334.31 1308.89 1272.49
S2 1331.24 1280.40 1219.15
S3 1326.58 1237.61 1135.92

Current Week Month   Stock Market Trading Trend Down Year  Stock Market Trading Trend Up
Open 0 1329.48 1257.64
High 0 1339.46 1344.07
Low 0 1294.70 1249.05
Range 0 44.76

Previous Day  Stock Market Trading Trend Up Week Stock Market Trading Trend Down  Month   Stock Market Trading Trend Down Year  Stock Market Trading Trend Up
Open 1333.23
1329.01 1328.64 1116.56
High 1337.49 1337.49 1332.28 1219.8
Low 1332.83 1294.70 1249.05 1011.40
Close 1337.38 1337.38 1325.82 1258.84
Range 4.66 31.35 83.23

Key Support and Resistance Levels


High? 1340
Current 1337




Low? 1288

Bold Numbers = Stronger Support and Resistance

Trade Set Ups for the Week Ahead

Once again my self imposed rules for the trade set ups have worked against me this week.

Despite the analysis working out near perfectly with the potential to bank up to 29 points on that one single trade, my target price was a little bit too greedy and did not print. That means I have to mark it up as a 16 point loss instead, as the market reveresed all the way up to hit my stop in premarket trading on Thursday.

This week, the S&P500 closed on Thurssday at 1238 and I am now in full crash mode alert, so will take one swing trade and a longer term short position trade from there.

NOTE: For this format I am using a 10 point stop loss on the weekly trade set up, 3 points on the day trade set up and 25 points on a position trade, unless otherwise indicated. 


Kennys Stock Market Trade for the Week

Market Trade Open Target
S&P 500 Cash Index sell 1338 1295

Kennys Stock Market Position Trade

Market Trade Open Target
S&P 500 Cash Index sell 1338 1175

Kennys Elliott Waves Blog - View Latest Chart Analysis
Kennys Technical Analysis Charts

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