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Kennys Stock Market Trading - The Week Ahead 21 Mar
March 20, 2011

Issue# 0009 20 Mar 2010

Stock Market Trading

Traders Day Trading & Kenny's Elliott Waves Blog

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Welcome to Stock Market Trading the new look newsletter for 2011 from Traders Day Trading & Kenny's Elliott Waves Blog.

Important, the information provided here is supplied for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice or an inducement to trade. Please refer to the full terms and conditions at  and seek independent financial advice where necessary.

S&P 500 Cash Index - The Week Ahead

The Week That Was...
Last week saw a decisive break down through our 1293 key pivot level almost straight from the Globex open and killed off the chances of the potential new high for the week, into our 1353 target. Once our key support level at 1293 broke, the market swiftly shed another 40+ points to print a low for the week at 1249. 

Last week we gave the key pivot level as 1293 cash and that means that this weeks call is no less tricky than it was last week.

The trade set up entries for last week were not triggered as we wanted to see the opening price action, and it gapped straight down through our support levels negating the bullish scenario almost immediately. 

This week, we will not know until we see some price action on Monday whether to expect a gap and go to 1312 or if it will back test 1300 first
Prices dropped straight through our ST pivot level at 1298 and in fact, a perfect back test of 1298 turned out to be as high as they could push it back up.

The Week Ahead...
This week is another extremely mixed bag of signals as the S&P500 bounced off the lower channel trend line, and then very quickly recovered more than 50% of its losses for the week before easing back into Fridays close.

Our time studies suggest a fair bit of volatility in the next few weeks as we have a number of conflicting CITs due throughout the different time frames. This will ensure that the short term is far from predictable much in advance, with any degree of certainty.

My best guess is that this week will see another pop at 1293 and probably 1303-5 by Wednesday but beyond that it is a very tough call as much will depend on what happens between now and then.

1268 looks to be the key support level that will be pivotal, but as you may have noticed from the second table below, 1257 is a big number also. Wednesday saw the lowest close for the year so far, more or less at that 1257 level, so a close below that would suggest that there is more action to come below that.

Pivots Monday Weekly Monthly
R3 1306.82
1379.36 1430.00
R2 1294.12 1343.67 1375.07
R1 1286.66 1323.98 1351.15
Pivot 1281.42 1276.48 1320.14
S1 1273.96 1251.77 1296.22
S2 1268.72 1224.34 1265.21
S3 1256.02 1172.20 1210.28

Current Week  Stock Market Trading Trend Down Month   Stock Market Trading Trend Down Year  Stock Market Trading Trend Up
Open 0 1307.07 1257.64
High 0 1332.28 1344.07
Low 0 1249.05 1249.05
Range 0 83.23 95.02

Previous Day  Stock Market Trading Trend Down Week Stock Market Trading Trend Down  Month   Stock Market Trading Trend Up Year  Stock Market Trading Trend Up
Open 1276.71 1301.19 1289.14 1116.56
High 1288.88 1301.19 1344.07 1219.8
Low 1276.18 1249.05 1289.14 1011.40
Close 1279.20 1279.20 1327.22 1258.84
Range 12.7 52.14 54.93 208.4

Key Support and Resistance Levels

MT Pivot 1293
ST Resistance 1288
Current 1279.2
ST Support 1268

Bold Numbers = Stronger Support and Resistance

Trade Set Ups for the Week Ahead

This week we are looking to long 1270 on any weakness on Monday, otherwise the trade will be negated. The target will be 1293.

If the market opens up, we want to sell 1285 with a target of 1274 and a stop at 1290 but again, this trade is time specific and is a day trade for Monday only.


NOTE: For this format I am using a 10 point stop loss on the weekly trade set up and 3 points on the day trade set up, unless otherwise indicated. 

It is important to remember that technical analysis does not tell us what will happen, it is about the odds and probabilities of what to expect to happen given a certain set of circumstances. As circumstances change so must expectations, and trading plans must be adapted to fit those new circumstances.


Kennys Stock Market Trade for the Day

Market Trade Open Target Stop
S&P 500 Cash Index Sell 1285  1274 1290

Kennys Stock Market Trade for the Week

Market Trade Open Target
S&P 500 Cash Index Buy 1270 1293

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