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Kennys Stock Market Trading - The Week Ahead 14 Mar
March 13, 2011
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Issue# 0008 13 Mar 2010

Stock Market Trading

Traders Day Trading & Kenny's Elliott Waves Blog

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Hello,

Welcome to Stock Market Trading the new look newsletter for 2011 from Traders Day Trading & Kenny's Elliott Waves Blog.

Important, the information provided here is supplied for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice or an inducement to trade. Please refer to the full terms and conditions at www.tradersdaytrading.com  and seek independent financial advice where necessary.

S&P 500 Cash Index - The Week Ahead


The Week That Was...
For last weeks analysis we had a tough call as the market consolidated in a range without having a go at our upper targets. We decided to plan for a marginal new high then all the way down towards 1273 with a trading target of 1286.

"This weeks outlook is a very tough call. 1353 is still out there as a potential target, the gap at 1343 remains open and there is still no technical change in trend. However, on balance it looks like there should be some more weakness on the way."

The market gave us the marginal new high to 1327.68 but this was just high enough to stop out the day trade set up with an entry at 1323.

The market then tanked all the way down to our support level at 1303 before recovering all its losses for the week, but ultimately broke down again to hit our 1286 target in pre market trading on Friday.

The weekly trade performed very nicely thanks to the wider stops and gave us 35 points for that single trade.


The Week Ahead...
Last week we gave the key pivot level as 1293 cash and that means that this weeks call is no less tricky than it was last week. The market could not quite hold the pre market break, and in fact the S&P 500 only briefly made it to a low of 1291.99 for the week in real time trading, before performing a sharp reversal higher.

"After that it can drop towards 1273, but the key pivot level remains at 1293"

This gives us a dilemma. Was that a fake out low or was it a sign of genuine strength that will see an attempted run at our higher targets?

As always, we will trade what we see and not what we think. The analysis says up and we will go with that for this week as long as cash stays above our key pivot at 1291.99

1326 is the immediate target but it now looks very likely that the gap at 1343 should be filled and that will probably ultimately lead to at least a shot at 1353 over the next week or two.

After a very brief spell where many bears turned bullish, last weeks price action has flipped many of them short again. It looks like a new high is in direct contrast to what most are looking for from here but as always, we will trade with our head rather than with the heart.

Successful trading is about odds and probabilities, not about being right or wrong. Stop losses protect us from the exception to the rule.

 
Pivots Monday Weekly Monthly
R3 1334.26
1379.36 1430.00
R2 1317.90 1343.67 1375.07
R1 1311.09 1323.98 1351.15
Pivot 1301.54 1307.98 1320.14
S1 1294.73 1288.29 1296.22
S2 1285.18 1272.29 1265.21
S3 1268.82 1236.60 1210.28

Current Week  Stock Market Trading Trend Up Month   Stock Market Trading Trend Up Year  Stock Market Trading Trend Up
Open 0 1307.07 1257.64
High 0 1332.28 1344.07
Low 0 1291.99 1257.62
Range 0 40.29 86.45


Previous Day  Stock Market Trading Trend Up Week Stock Market Trading Trend Up  Month   Stock Market Trading Trend Up Year  Stock Market Trading Trend Up
Open 1293.43 1322.72 1289.14 1116.56
High 1308.35 1327.68 1344.07 1219.8
Low 1291.99 1291.99 1289.14 1011.40
Close 1304.28 1304.28 1327.22 1258.84
Range 16.36 35.69 54.93 208.4


Key Support and Resistance Levels

1381
1370
1360
1353
High? 1344
1334
1326
1320
1311
Current 1304.28
Low?
1303
ST Pivot 1298
MT Pivot 1293
1288

1273
1225
Bold Numbers = Stronger Support and Resistance


Trade Set Ups for the Week Ahead

Last weeks Day Trade set up was stopped out for a -3

The weekly Swing trade entered at 1321 and banked 35 points in premarket trading on Friday, giving us a total of 32 points for the week.

This week, we will not know until we see some price action on Monday whether to expect a gap and go to 1312 or if it will back test 1300 first so it makes a 3 point stop a bit unpredictable. We do also want to try to catch more of the potential larger move higher, so with this in mind we are going with 2 swing trades this week instead of the usual 1 swing trade and 1 day trade.  

******

NOTE: For this format I am using a 10 point stop loss on the weekly trade set up and 3 points on the day trade set up. 

It is important to remember that technical analysis does not tell us what will happen, it is about the odds and probabilities of what to expect to happen given a certain set of circumstances. As circumstances change so must expectations, and trading plans must be adapted to fit those new circumstances.


******

Kennys Stock Market Trade for the Week (1)

Market Trade Open Target
S&P 500 Cash Index Buy 1301 or Best Price 1338


Kennys Stock Market Trade for the Week (2)

Market Trade Open Target
S&P 500 Cash Index Buy 1304 or Best Price 1326


Kennys Elliott Waves Blog - View Latest Chart Analysis
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Kenny



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