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Kennys Stock Market Trading - The Week Ahead 7 Mar
March 06, 2011
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Issue# 0007 07 Mar 2010

Stock Market Trading

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Hello,

Welcome to Stock Market Trading the new look newsletter for 2011 from Traders Day Trading & Kenny's Elliott Waves Blog.

Important, the information provided here is supplied for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice or an inducement to trade. Please refer to the full terms and conditions at www.tradersdaytrading.com  and seek independent financial advice where necessary.

S&P 500 Cash Index - The Week Ahead


The Week That Was...
Last weeks analysis in Stock Market Trading was looking for a gap up on Monday followed by a gap close and consolidation with 1303 as the low for the week, and that is exactly what we got. We slightly underestimated the strength of Mondays move for the trade set ups, and our planned Day Trade short from 1325 resulted in a -3

The market has already retraced 50% of the decline and we expect a gap up in S&P cash at the open on Monday. After that is can close the gap and we will probably see a consolidating move whilst the market digests the recent short term volatility.

The market then tanked from that high all the way down to the 1303 target so there was plenty points to be had on re-entering the trade.


The Week Ahead...
This weeks outlook is a very tough call. 1353 is still out there as a potential target, the gap at 1343 remains open and there is still no technical change in trend. However, on balance it looks like there should be some more weakness on the way.

Much will depend on Mondays opening price action, a break higher form here is likely to see the gap at 1343 closed and a possible test of 1353.

However, what I am going for this week is a drop from the offset. Any opening gap down on Monday can be closed, with a possible overshoot to 1324.5

After that it can drop towards 1273, but the key pivot level remains at 1293

 
Pivots Monday Weekly Monthly
R3 1358.59
1378.07 1430.00
R2 1340.10 1348.57 1375.07
R1 1330.62 1334.76 1351.15
Pivot 1321.61 1318.67 1320.14
S1 1312.13 1305.06 1296.22
S2 1303.12 1288.97 1265.21
S3 1284.63 1259.27 1210.28

Current Week  Stock Market Trading Trend Up Month   Stock Market Trading Trend Up Year  Stock Market Trading Trend Up
Open 0 1307.07 1257.64
High 0 1332.28 1344.07
Low 0 1302.8 1257.62
Range 0 29.48 86.45


Previous Day  Stock Market Trading Trend Up Week Stock Market Trading Trend Up  Month   Stock Market Trading Trend Up Year  Stock Market Trading Trend Up
Open 1330.73 1307.07 1289.14 1116.56
High 1331.08 1332.28 1344.07 1219.8
Low 1312.59 1302.58 1289.14 1011.40
Close 1321.15 1321.15 1327.22 1258.84
Range 18.49 29.7 54.93 208.4


Key Support and Resistance Levels

1381
1370
1360
High? 1353
1344
1334
Current 1321.15
1316
1311
Open Gap 1308.44

1303
1293
1288
Low? 1273
1225
Bold Numbers = Stronger Support and Resistance


Trade Set Ups for the Week Ahead

Last weeks Day Trade set up was stopped out for a -3

The planned Swing trade from 1303 didnt quite make it to its ambitious target of 1338, and closed at 1221 on Friday, banking 18 points. This gave us a total of 15 points for the week on our trade set ups.

In reality, there was much more to be had by re-entering short on Mondays pop, and banking the swing long earlier, as it did actually go all the way up to 1332.

******

NOTE: For this format I am using a 10 point stop loss on the weekly trade set up and 3 points on the day trade set up. 

It is important to remember that technical analysis does not tell us what will happen, it is about the odds and probabilities of what to expect to happen given a certain set of circumstances. As circumstances change so must expectations, and trading plans must be adapted to fit those new circumstances.


******

Kennys Stock Market Trade for the Day

Market Trade Open Target
S&P 500 Cash Index Sell 1323 or Best Price 1311


Kennys Stock Market Trade for the Week

Market Trade Open Target
S&P 500 Cash Index Sell 1321 or Best Price 1286


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Kenny



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