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Kennys Stock Market Trading - The Week Ahead 10 Apr
April 10, 2011

Issue# 0012 10 April 2010

Stock Market Trading

Traders Day Trading & Kenny's Elliott Waves Blog

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Welcome to Stock Market Trading the new look newsletter for 2011 from Traders Day Trading & Kenny's Elliott Waves Blog.

Important, the information provided here is supplied for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice or an inducement to trade. Please refer to the full terms and conditions at  and seek independent financial advice where necessary.

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S&P 500 Cash Index - The Week Ahead

The Week That Was...
Last week gave us the short term dip that we were looking for but spent the entire week confined in a very tight range and only managed to break lower on Friday. Coincidence that the entire weeks range centered on the middle of my 1330-3 target area?

Last week closed right in the 1330-3 target zone so I want to be short from around here somewhere to 1320, 1312 or 1305 before another long trade kicks in.

My estimated high for the week at 1340 was absolutely spot on but the move down was very limited, falling well short of the target at 1312. In fact it did not even manage to print the estimated minimum at 1320 and instead, bounced off the lower rising channel trend line.

Fridays price action did however, produce a bearish engulfing candle for the S&P 500 index.

The Week Ahead...
The dilemma for this week is whether to go long with the shorter term timing studies that was looking for a low centered on Thursday, or to go short with the markets failure to break through the resistance and Fridays bearish engulfing candle....

Reaching the 1330-3 target confirmed a medium term delta low and in all probabilities, a long term low too. The next long term delta high is due in early June so is of little help to us here now as we have already done the minimum at 1330-3, and the margin of error in time at that degree means that it is now in the zone if it is going to come in early.

Fwiw, I would expect it to come in early but that does not mean that this is it here.

Pivots Monday Weekly Monthly
R3 1363.23
1363.23 1468.84
R2 1346.71 1346.71 1385.61
R1 1337.44 1337.44 1355.72
Pivot 1330.19 1330.19 1302.38
S1 1320.92 1320.92 1272.49
S2 1313.67 1313.67 1219.15
S3 1297.15 1297.15 1135.92

Current Week Month   Stock Market Trading Trend Down Year  Stock Market Trading Trend Up
Open 0 1329.48 1257.64
High 0 1339.46 1344.07
Low 0 1322.94 1249.05
Range 0 16.52

Previous Day  Stock Market Trading Trend Down Week Stock Market Trading Trend Down  Month   Stock Market Trading Trend Up Year  Stock Market Trading Trend Up
Open 1336.16
1333.56 1328.64 1116.56
High 1339.46 1339.46 1332.28 1219.8
Low 1322.94 1322.94 1249.05 1011.40
Close 1328.17 1328.17 1325.82 1258.84
Range 16.52 16.52 83.23

Key Support and Resistance Levels


High? 1334
Current 1328
Low? 1310

Bold Numbers = Stronger Support and Resistance

Trade Set Ups for the Week Ahead

Last week Sell swing trade failed to meet its target at 1312 but closed at 1328 giving us 6 points for the week. The long trade entry did not get filled.

Ideally, I want see the market hit last weeks target at 1312 pre-market or early in Tuesdays trading, and then get short again from a lower high late in the week. Alternatively, if instead the market follows through the bounce off Fridays low and continues on up from here, I will want to get short from a higher high.


NOTE: For this format I am using a 10 point stop loss on the weekly trade set up and 3 points on the day trade set up, unless otherwise indicated. 

It is important to remember that technical analysis does not tell us what will happen, it is about the odds and probabilities of what to expect to happen given a certain set of circumstances. As circumstances change so must expectations, and trading plans must be adapted to fit those new circumstances.


Kennys Stock Market Trade for the Week 1

Market Trade Open Target
S&P 500 Cash Index Buy 1308 1328
*Entry Valid Until Tuesday

Kennys Stock Market Trade for the Week 2

Market Trade Open Target
S&P 500 Cash Index sell 1332 1298
*Entry Valid From Late Wednesday

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